WHEN INVESTING BECOMES A LIFESTYLE YOU WEAR IT!

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ANY GROWN UPS IN THE HOUSE…

What happens when the U.S. government shuts down, the President rage-tweets about tariffs, and Wall Street collectively loses its cool? You get a week so packed with financial schizophrenia.

Tech stocks spent most of the week sprinting in circles, waving pompoms of “AI-driven growth!” before tripping over President Trump’s flaming Twitter fingers and landing face-first in Friday’s trading pit.

Meanwhile, Delta Airlines (DLA) beat earnings and soared, proof that flying late and losing luggage somehow commands a healthy stock premium when Wall Street seeks liquidity in a known name.

The real eye-poppers came from China’s electric vehicle brigade: Nio (NIO) surged 31.8% weekly, and Guangzhou Xiaopeng Motors up 20.5%—why bother with fundamentals when you can just trade on hope, lottery tickets, and the fact that “EV growth” works as a prayer in every language?

But wait, there’s more! Shoals Technologies (SHLS), iQIYI (IQ), and Dayforce (DAY) all posted monster percentage gains, each now trading at double or triple their fair value according to Morningstar.

If history is any guide, these names will be “top losers” next week, but let’s not let facts ruin the party—Wall Street is allergic to reality when the tape is green.

And then, as always, the plot thickened. The government shut down on October 1—confusion reigned, checks stopped, air traffic controllers began learning how to juggle flaming batons, praying and planning on perfect.

Meanwhile, behind closed doors, the budget talks resembled a kindergarten toy dispute: “You first!” “No, you!” “It’s not my fault!” With 900,000 workers furloughed, 700,000 laboring for free, and essential services running on fumes, bipartisan comedy reached new heights. All this, for what? Shutdowns drain about $15 billion in GDP per week, thousands of jobs, and more patience than most Americans have left.

Just as the market began to digest the indignity of government paralysis, President Trump decided Friday afternoon was a perfect time for an all-caps tariff Twitter rampage. “KABOOM!” went the news wires: 100% tariffs on Chinese goods—yes, on top of the existing 30%, effective November 1, or whenever the mood strikes. This was the diplomatic equivalent of flicking a lit match into a fireworks factory and blaming China for the explosion.

Wall Street’s response was swift and decisive.

The Dow dived 878 points (1.9%), the S&P 500 sank 2.7%, and the Nasdaq—a tech darling all week—tanked 3.6%. Crypto traders, used to disaster, watched their coins nosedive as trade war fears boiled over.

This week’s saga proves stupidity is bipartisan, cross-industry, and universally self-serving.

Economically, the government shutdown shaved billions off GDP, throttled consumer confidence, and threatened to delay deals and payments coast-to-coast. Tariff threats already rattled supply chains, raised prices, and spooked every sector from chips to airlines to energy.

More importantly, the whipped-up uncertainty will cost Wall Street and Main Street alike, proving that financial markets are only as sound as the grown-ups in the room—of which there were none this week.

 WHEN INVESTING BECOMES A LIFESTYLE YOU WEAR IT!

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WHO WANTS TO BE THE NEXT BAG HOLDER?…

Ladies, gentlemen, and aspiring Warren Buffetts—welcome to another episode of “Who Wants To Be Left Holding the Bag?”

The show that’s been running longer than the stock market itself, starring retail investors who, year after year, believe they’ll outwit the pros, outpace the benchmarks, and—most delusional of all—outlast history itself. Armed with nothing but TikTok hot takes, meme stonks, and a healthy disregard for economic reality, our heroes blunder forward, guided by two psychological sirens: the Greater Fool Theory and the “Better Than Average” effect.

If you’re unfamiliar, the greater fool theory is simple: Buy some asset (let’s face it, usually an overpriced, profitless company everyone’s talking about), and pray that some “greater fool” will soon want it even more, like passing a ticking time bomb and congratulating yourself for successfully offloading it, while ignoring the fact the whole room is now full of explosives. For retail investors, this isn’t just a theory—it’s a lifestyle.

1999? Feisty young tech retail traders bragged they’d “found the next Amazon.” Most found the next pets.com and were left petting bankruptcy, while institutional players used their tears as lubrication for golf club grips. The script repeated in 2008: home prices couldn’t fall, right?

Surely some “greater fool” would pay even more. They didn’t, and—cue the curtain—watch prices collapse, fortunes evaporate, and the only thing rising was therapist bills.

Flash-forward to October 2025. Semiconductors, AI, and crypto were the hottest tickets in town; attending the party was retail investor FOMO at its best, with record inflows chasing tech stocks at all-time highs. The mood? Euphoric. The results? Predictable.

Just ask anyone long AMD, Micron, Synopsys, or Qualcomm last Friday, as each plunged 4–6% in a single session, wiping out “easy” gains from weeks of reckless optimism.
Retail investors now comprise 25% of daily U.S. equity volume, up from 10–15% before COVID. Has their “collective wisdom” plugged the gap versus the pros?

Not unless you count plugging your bank account with red ink. Fact: Over the last 20 years, the average retailer lagged the S&P 500 by 6.1% annually—yes, you read that right, not six tenths, six percent—a catastrophic gap that compounds like a hangover from tequila at the company Christmas party.

This brings us to phenomenon number two: “Better than average” bias. Psychologists and finance PhDs have documented decades of investors rating themselves as “above average”—even as their portfolios scream “below sea level.” Surveys show up to 80% of traders believe they’ll beat the index—a numerical impossibility you’d expect from lottery ticket buyers or pirate treasure hunters, not “serious” grown-ups with actual jobs.

Overconfidence is contagious. Retailers routinely confuse luck for skill, especially when bullish markets lift all boats (including those constructed from Swiss cheese). Memory bias ensures they remember their wins fondly, forget their losses dutifully, and convince themselves that this year, their edge will finally pay off.

Let’s revisit some classic retellings. The dot-com bubble: buy any stock with “.com” in its name and ignore radical concepts like revenue or profit. “Who cares?” the crowd sang, “Some other fool will pay more!” And they did—until they didn’t.

The Nasdaq halved, thousands lost jobs, and coffee shops filled with ex-day traders desperately Googling “how to get a real job”.

The housing bubble: every neighbor, dog-walker, and Uber driver “flipped” houses, dismissing fundamental value altogether. They counted future profits as certain, assuming they’d sell to the next optimist. The only thing flipping, ultimately, was their luck—and the global economy.

2021’s meme stock madness gave us GameStop and AMC, where “diamond hands” replaced sober analysis. Retail traders goaded each other to hold forever, betting against institutional short-sellers—forgetting the lessons of liquidity, valuation, and history. Sure, a few “stonks” soared for weeks, but, as always, the greater fools took the final gulp when reality bit.

But surely, things are different now? Today’s AI tools, social media research, and commission-free trading have leveled the playing field, right? Wrong. As Warren Buffett snarked, “Be fearful when others are greedy.” Professionals win by sticking to discipline, evaluating risk, and, most importantly, leaving the party before the house burns down. Retail investors, by contrast, are convinced that dancing until sunrise will finally pay off. Spoiler: it never does.

Dalbar’s 30-year report is a monument to this folly. Over three full decades, the average retail investor turned $100,000 into just over $200,000, while the S&P 500 returned over $800,000—meaning most would have done better planting trees and waiting for apples to fall.

Professionals have better information, less emotion, and—crucially—the humility to recognize when they’re guessing.

So next time someone brags at brunch about their “game-changing” portfolio, hand them a history book and politely remind them that when the music stops, chairs are few and the greatest fool gets the biggest bruise.

Then pour yourself an overpriced mimosa, chuckle at the news alerts, and bask in the comfort that—while bubbles and overconfidence are eternal—the laws of math, gravity, and markets remain undefeated.

Do you want to be “better than average?” Start by not believing you are. And for those hoping to find a greater fool: Wall Street assures you, there’s always one out there—just hope it’s never you.

WHEN INVESTING BECOMES A LIFESTYLE YOU WEAR IT!

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Kevin Davis Founder of Investment Dojo and Author of The C.R.E.A.M. Report