Staged Inflation...

There Is Always A Motivation Behind The Narrative...

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We are in an age of social and media-driven influence. It has been proven that the financial media and social media can move markets. Back in the day, it was buy on rumor, sell on news; today it has become—create the rumor, profit by manipulation.

The victims of the manipulation are often Generation Z and millennials who are more apt to get their investment advice from social media versus going the more traditional, financial advisor route.

We are arguably in one of the most historic and complex investment renaissances of our time. If it’s not a trusted face in the media appealing to your greed center, it’s a social media influencer or presidential post that triggers an action.

Today’s new investors are not savvy enough to dissect the macro environment or informed enough to go into history and seek clarity past the noisy financial agenda.

If you are listening to the financial media, you are highly conflicted. In one breath, they are telling you a company is the best thing since sliced bread, and in the next, they are saying, if it doesn’t perform by next week or next quarter, I am done with the position.

To a new investor who doesn’t have the chops for research—they are liable to live on every word spoken as the gospel for empirical truth and take the risk on hearsay without paying attention to the motivation or intention behind the trade, moving off of pure greed.

Here's what I mean…let’s take a financial show like CNBC, which is extremely reputable, and because they reach approximately 130k viewers daily or 650k a week—the demographics are as follows:

  • Gender: Approximately 63% male and 37% female.

  • Age: The largest age group among their audience is 25 to 34 years old.

  • According to advertising data, roughly 17% of the audience is aged 18-34, 29% are aged 35-54, and 54% are 55 or older.

  • Key target demographic: Adults aged 25-54 are an important segment.

According to the analysis, about 19% of viewers watch CNBC for five or more hours a week, so they are a major outlet for investor intelligence. With that being said, it is easy for an investment figure to come on air and talk up their book or manipulate the narrative in their favor.

I come from the days of Dan Foreman, a former CNBC market analyst who carried an extreme amount of influence. His influence was so great that it placed him smack in the middle of a scandal involving pinpoint stocks on air.

The scandal centered around a federal investigation in 1995 regarding his relationship with a stock promoter, Donald Kessler, who was under investigation for insider trading and securities fraud.

BusinessWeek magazine reported that the U.S. Attorney General was probing Dorfman’s ties to Kessler.

Dorfman was accused of possibly benefiting from his daily stock reports on CNBC, which had a significant market impact, potentially tied to Kessler charging clients for introductions or positive mentions on Dorfman’s show.

 In his day, Dan Dorfman moved markets.

Today, social media and YouTube are the 800-pound gorillas. Social media platforms (like Reddit, Twitter, YouTube, Facebook) have become dominant sources for investment insights, with a large majority of retail investors turning to these channels for tips, sentiment, and community advice.

For example, about 80% use YouTube for investment insights, and social media platforms promote real-time dialogue and opinion sharing that profoundly affect decision-making. Social media “finfluencers” with large followings shape public sentiment and have more impact on stock prices than traditional financial news sources in some cases.

However, social media comes with risks such as misinformation and variable content quality.

Now, if you take into account the conduit in which these new investors are consuming their financial information and the influx of new investors, chances are they aren’t verifying the stocks they are investing in, nor do they know how, which is a recipe for financial destruction.

This is why it’s important to read before you proceed and inspect what you expect, especially in a climate where a financial bomb explodes daily, usually triggered by the most viral president ever.

Donald Trump. During his presidency, Trump tweeted around 57,000 times and amassed over 88.9 million followers on Twitter, making his account exceptionally influential and viral.

Trump knows the power of his words, which makes his viral moments a combination of outrageous and manipulative, especially when it comes to the movements in the stock markets.

In today’s investment climate with all of this noise, knowing how to view the investment landscape and truly drill down to research is extremely important, especially if you want to preserve and grow capital.

So, if you are one of those who allow others to influence your investments, understand this first, no one will share in your profits or pay back your losses, so what you do and how you do it all falls on you.

The best part is that you get to choose whether it’s a windfall or a falling knife!

 

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Well What Can I Say…

STAGED STAGFLATION…

Have you ever wondered why everyone is throwing around the word, stagflation, in 2025 It seems to be a healthy amount of fear-mongering amongst the media. But when you go and research stagflation, it makes one struggle to compare the 70’s to the current state in any capacity.

So let’s kill the comparison once and for all; first off:

The stagflation of the 1970s was a complex economic phenomenon characterized by several key components that collectively created a difficult environment of slow growth, high inflation, and elevated unemployment.

High Inflation: The 1970s saw very high inflation rates, averaging around 10.1% during 1974-1975. Inflation was fueled by rising oil prices, commodity shocks, and wage-price spirals. In contrast, inflation in 2025 is 2.7% based on the latest CPI, so how does this even compare?

There was a pattern of slow or Negative Economic Growth in the 1970s experienced stagnant or negative real GDP growth, with some years seeing recessions. Periods of real GDP contraction coincided with high inflation, which broke usual economic patterns.

GDP is currently at 2.97% - which is just below the average 50 year GDP of 3.19% (1975-2025)

High Unemployment: Unemployment in the 1970s stagflation period averaged around 7.1%, with spikes timed around recessions. This high joblessness was coupled with inflation, a combination that challenged conventional theories. In 2025, unemployment rates remain low by historical standards at about 4.2% , also keep in mind we have never had a recession below 5.2% unemployment.

The major cause of stagflation was the oil embargo which caused oil price shocks, this caused a quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC in 1973 and recurring energy shocks were major triggers of stagflation. These supply shocks increased production costs and consumer prices.

Tariffs are not have nearly the impact analyst thought they would and is far from causing a supply shock close to Pandemic levels needed to cause a major sure in pricing.

Supply Chain and Commodity Shortages: The 1970s were marked by raw material scarcities beyond oil, including food and other commodities. This contributed to cost-push inflation. Modern supply chains, while facing challenges (including tariffs), are supported by more resilient global networks and technology.

So, nothing here to speak of!

A major contrast in Monetary Policy Challenges is that the feds kept interests too low for too long in the 70s rising inflation, worsening the situation. Today we are on the verge of a cutting or easing cycle.

One of the few similar contrasts is High Deficits he 1970s saw high government spending partly due to Vietnam War costs and social programs, contributing to inflationary pressures alongside accommodative monetary policy.

In this case we are at the tail end of the COVID spend influx and the feds balance sheet is decreasing. In 1970 There were wage and price restrictions to quail spending and inflation but the restriction was lifted in 1971 the CPI jumped to 8.5%

Today the CPI is 2.7% So when you hear the talking heads speaking stagflation in the air, use these data points to dispute the noise.

Unless you have the data to support a supply shock, high unemployment and economic slowdown you are delusional or have ulterior motives at best.

Unless you have the data to support a supply shock, high unemployment and economic slowdown you are delusional or have ulterior motives at best.

Coach KD

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Thank you for reading, we appreciate your feedback—sharing is caring.

Kevin Davis Founder of Investment Dojo and Author of The C.R.E.A.M. Report

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